Market vs JMM

Every JMM probability next to the market-implied price for the same question, once a verified comparator exists. A missing comparator is stated as a missing comparator, never estimated.

Worked example — Predictions with a captured market comparator: 0 of 11. No verified Kalshi or Polymarket checkpoint maps to a research question yet.

Why JMM doesn't show market odds next to its predictions yet

Private market observations remain outside the frontend until field-level display rights are approved and a contemporaneous quote is matched to a proof-backed JMM forecast. Rather than invent or republish prices, this board states the absence: no captured Kalshi or Polymarket checkpoint yet maps to any of the 11 registered research questions. A disagreement is calculated only after an entitled comparator passes that gate. The forecast tracker is the JMM side of this board on its own, with nothing waiting on a rights approval.

JMM's predictions, without a market comparator yet

Question	JMM probability	Status
Will U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rise by more than 196,000 in July 2026?	23%	Openby Aug 7, 2026
Will the U.S. unemployment rate be above 4.5% in July 2026?	5%	Openby Aug 7, 2026
Will U.S. CPI-U inflation be above 3.0% year over year in July 2026?	92%	Openby Aug 12, 2026
Will ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	57%	Openby Oct 14, 2026
Will NVIDIA CORP's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	71%	Openby Nov 12, 2026
Will Apple Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	29%	Openby Jan 13, 2027
Will Alphabet Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	93%	Openby Jan 16, 2027
Will AMAZON COM INC's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	79%	Openby Jan 16, 2027
Will Meta Platforms, Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	79%	Openby Jan 16, 2027
Will MICROSOFT CORPORATION's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	79%	Openby Jan 16, 2027
Will Tesla, Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?	50%	Openby Jan 16, 2027

Why a row can have no market probabilityPrivate market observations remain outside the frontend until field-level display rights are approved and a contemporaneous quote is matched to a proof-backed JMM forecast. Rather than invent or republish prices, this board states the absence. A disagreement is calculated only after an entitled comparator passes that gate.

Why a market price is the right opponent

A forecast is only interesting against something that is hard to beat. A liquid prediction market has money on the answer, which makes it the cleanest available benchmark and a genuinely uncomfortable one. This board is the standing comparison: question, JMM probability, market probability, disagreement in percentage points. When JMM is wrong the loss column will be exactly as visible as the win column.

How the gap will be read

Disagreement is the absolute difference in percentage points, flagged at ten or more. A large gap is not automatically a JMM error: a market price carries liquidity, fees, and crowd noise, and a base rate carries none of those and no news either. The test is resolution. Each row settles on its official source, and calibration is judged on the settled history rather than on how bold the disagreements looked.

The JMM side of the comparison Forecast tracker: the probability ledger

The people side of the comparison Claims scoreboard: how public claims get graded

Early access

What Pro adds to comparisons

Captured comparators and easier side-by-side research are Pro features. The launch list sends one email at launch.

More tools

Strategy backtester Five expert strategies over one five-year window of sourced asset-class returns. Change the starting amount and compare what each would have returned. Influencer portfolio tracker What Buffett, Wood, Saylor, Ackman, and Dalio disclose owning, from 13F filings and daily ETF disclosures, each stamped with its as-of date. Forecast tracker The JMM probability ledger. A forecast reaches it only after its exact issue bytes are publicly timestamped ahead of the cutoff it will be scored against. Claims scoreboard Public claims by named investors, founders, and officials, graded against the rule each was made under: the number, the deadline, and the source that settles it.