Forecast tracker
Every JMM prediction whose issue bytes were publicly timestamped before its own cutoff, on one board. A calibration record is the one asset here that cannot be bought, faked, or backfilled.
Worked example — Open predictions on the ledger: 8. 3 settled, official resolution source named per row.
All categories: Existing default; most visitors arrive without a category preference.
How JMM proves a prediction wasn't edited after the fact
Every published forecast is bound to a locked-field fingerprint, a content-addressed manifest, and the commit and tree that contain it. Editing a published probability, model, or rule after the fact changes all three, which is exactly what the chain is built to catch.
| Question | Published at | Locked-field fingerprint | Manifest artifact | Commit / tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rise by more than 196,000 in July 2026? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 42e0768b61b2… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will the U.S. unemployment rate be above 4.5% in July 2026? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 3df7836ae775… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will U.S. CPI-U inflation be above 3.0% year over year in July 2026? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 4ccbe456d28d… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 67a7ddd57abe… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will NVIDIA CORP's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | b1679fe94610… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will Apple Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 914aea3566a7… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 80a0bfac82f9… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will MICROSOFT CORPORATION's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 8a1a1b1067c2… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will AMAZON COM INC's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | 9d89ddb2154b… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will Alphabet Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | c2ffe6a5dc14… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
| Will Tesla, Inc.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year? | Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT | ef014e3d3a34… | cd9824d6e363… | 1c7c70bbe9bd… / c1333b6f38f9… |
What counts as a settled forecast at JMM
A forecast settles on its own pre-declared rule, not on a reader's sense of how things turned out:
- Publisher. Each row names the official source that decides it: the first published BLS initial release, the accession-linked SEC value, Statistics Canada's monthly GDP, the EIA weekly report.
- Revision vintage used. The initial-release vintage scores the forecast; later revisions stay visible as context, because rescoring on revised data is a forecast marking its own homework.
- Deadline behavior. A prediction resolves on the release and moves to the settled section with the actual value and evidence URL attached. The board shows a resolve-by date, never a countdown: a release calendar decides when it settles, not a timer on this page.
What a probability here will mean
Each number is a model's retrospective event rate for the same kind of target: how often comparable BLS initial releases crossed the threshold, how often comparable SEC quarters did. Every prediction page names the model, its version, and the reference series it counted. A base rate with a date on it, not a view.
What the deadline does
Settled rows keep the issued probability beside the outcome. The head-to-head board is where those probabilities meet a market price for the same question.
JMM probabilities versus the market's Market vs JMM: head-to-head forecast accuracy 
The full records behind each card Prediction pages: rules, models, and sources What Pro adds to this record
Resolution history, calibration curves, and settled-row scoring are Pro features. The launch list sends one email at launch.