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Will MICROSOFT CORPORATION's next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?

Resolves Yes if the first SEC 10-Q or 10-K accepted by 2027-01-16T23:59:59.000Z with a standalone quarterly revenue value for the immediate next fiscal quarter after 2026-06-30, reported under RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, is more than 10% above the bounded comparable quarter one year earlier. Otherwise resolves No. If no qualifying filing is accepted by the cutoff, the call remains unscored and a new forecast version is required. A taxonomy change requires an explicit documented adapter before scoring.

JMM probability at issue79%
StatusAwaiting official result Filing deadlineJan 16, 2027, 6:59 PM EST ModelSEC quarterly revenue frequency model, version 1.3.0 Point-in-time inputs counted12

How the probability was made

Laplace-smoothed share of the last 12 year-over-year SEC quarterly revenue changes that exceeded 10%.

Calculation (10 hits + 1) / (12 observations + 2)
Which gives 0.7857
Published probability 0.79
Assume this quarter repeats the last one Registered as lastCompanyOutcome in protocol jmm-model-evaluation-2026-08-03-v1, hashed into the same locked fields as the probability so it cannot be chosen after the fact.
Comparator
75%
JMM
79%
Disagreement
+4 pts

The only way this can resolve Yes

Comparison
strictly greater than
Threshold
10 percent
Unit
year-over-year growth
Which vintage counts
prior year comparable quarter, RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax
Cutoff
Jan 16, 2027, 6:59 PM EST
Settled by
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionMICROSOFT CORPORATION company facts

The outcome is read from that source and nowhere else. Settlement receives its own record and cannot overwrite this one.

The 12 quarters the model counted

Each bar is one reported quarter's revenue against the same quarter a year earlier, as filed. 10 of 12 cleared 10 percent, which is the numerator in the calculation above. The baseline this question is measured forward from is the quarter ending , at $90.0B.

  1. +2.0%
  2. +7.1%
  3. +12.8%
  4. +17.6%
  5. +17.0%
  6. +16.0%
  7. +12.3%
  8. +13.3%
  9. +18.4%
  10. +16.7%
  11. +18.3%
  12. +17.7%

The model weights every quarter in that window equally, so the shape matters only through the count: 10 above the line out of 12. A recent turn and an old one move the number by exactly the same amount, which is the simplification this model version makes and the thing a later version would change. Every figure here traces to an accession-linked filing on the Microsoft record.

What was retrieved, and when

Every source below was retrieved at or before the issue time. A record citing evidence retrieved after its own issuance is refused by the publication path.

Continue auditing the record

PredictionsReturn to the full ledger

Every published probability against the comparator frozen beside it, widest disagreement first.

EventsInspect the release this resolves against

The publisher calendar entry that fixes the cutoff, with its own source clocks.

MethodRead the scoring and revision policy

Which measures the ledger will compute once an outcome exists, and how corrections are appended.