The receipts
Public claims graded against the rule they were made under, with the source that settles them. Every statement here is quoted from the document it was made in.
Worked example — Of the claims graded so far: 4 contradicted. 12 total audits, 3 supported, and the rest under review, each with a locator inside the document it was made in.
Was Cathie Wood right about Tesla hitting $2,000?
under review: the 2027 deadline on ARK's $2,000 base case has not arrived yet, and the comparable prior target, $3,000 by 2025 (split-adjusted to $1,000), finished the deadline year at less than half that price. Read the full audit, with sources.
What makes a claim gradeable
A claim needs all four of these before it earns a verdict here:
- A number. "Stocks look expensive" is not gradeable; "the S&P closes below 4,000" is.
- A date. A deadline the claim can be checked against, not an open-ended horizon.
- A threshold. The exact level or condition that settles it, stated at the time of the claim rather than chosen afterward.
- A named source. The document the claim was made in, and the record that settles it, both linked and dated.
Attribution is not a truth score either: recording that somebody said something is a different act from deciding whether they were right, and the two never share a column here. The full contract is at the publication standard.
What makes this board checkable
Each audit quotes the statement from the document it was made in, points at the paragraph, and dates every source it grades against, so a reader who disagrees with a verdict can go and read the same page JMM read. Verdicts are revisable in public: the correction path is on every audit and material errors are dated and kept visible.
Why under review is not a dodge
Some claims have real deadlines that have not arrived. Those sit under review until the settlement source publishes, and the verdict is written against the rule that was declared at the start rather than the one that would look best afterwards. A claim with no deadline at all stays under review permanently, which is the honest output rather than a hedge: if it cannot fail, it cannot be scored.
People versus models versus markets Market vs JMM: head-to-head forecast accuracy 
The JMM side of the scoreboard Forecast tracker: the probability ledger What Pro adds to the receipts
12 audits are on the board. Pro makes the next receipts easier to follow.