Will Nvidia Corp.'s next reported quarterly revenue grow more than 10% year over year?
Resolves Yes if the first SEC 10-Q or 10-K accepted by 2026-11-12T23:59:59.000Z with a standalone quarterly revenue value for the immediate next fiscal quarter after 2026-04-26, reported under Revenues, is more than 10% above the bounded comparable quarter one year earlier. Otherwise resolves No. If no qualifying filing is accepted by the cutoff, the call remains unscored and a new forecast version is required. A taxonomy change requires an explicit documented adapter before scoring.
How the probability was made
Laplace-smoothed share of the last 12 year-over-year SEC quarterly revenue changes that exceeded 10%.
(9 hits + 1) / (12 observations + 2) lastCompanyOutcome in protocol jmm-model-evaluation-2026-08-03-v1, hashed into the same locked fields as the probability so it cannot be chosen after the fact. - Comparator
- 75%
- JMM
- 71%
- Disagreement
- -4 pts
The only way this can resolve Yes
- Comparison
- strictly greater than
- Threshold
- 10 percent
- Unit
- year-over-year growth
- Which vintage counts
- prior year comparable quarter, Revenues
- Cutoff
- Nov 12, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
- Settled by
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
The outcome is read from that source and nowhere else. Settlement receives its own record and cannot overwrite this one.
The 12 quarters the model counted
Each bar is one reported quarter's revenue against the same quarter a year earlier, as filed. 9 of 12 cleared 10 percent, which is the numerator in the calculation above. The baseline this question is measured forward from is the quarter ending , at $81.6B.
- +3.0%
- -16.5%
- -13.2%
- +101.5%
- +205.5%
- +262.1%
- +122.4%
- +93.6%
- +69.2%
- +55.6%
- +62.5%
- +85.2%
The model weights every quarter in that window equally, so the shape matters only through the count: 9 above the line out of 12. A recent turn and an old one move the number by exactly the same amount, which is the simplification this model version makes and the thing a later version would change. Every figure here traces to an accession-linked filing on the NVIDIA record.
What was retrieved, and when
Every source below was retrieved at or before the issue time. A record citing evidence retrieved after its own issuance is refused by the publication path.
- NVIDIA CORP company factsU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Retrieved Aug 2, 2026, 9:34 PM EDT 93edcffe24f55d08284ff1736e41aa1a8e743ab6e4a6eea52cb8e9392b0ae6be
- NVIDIA CORP submissions historyU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Retrieved Aug 2, 2026, 9:34 PM EDT 3e9a0f2bccfc5c98df7489400aa1908a0ee1aa3de6410c1eabfe44bb3c495b60
Continue auditing the record
Every published probability against the comparator frozen beside it, widest disagreement first.
EventsInspect the release this resolves againstThe publisher calendar entry that fixes the cutoff, with its own source clocks.
MethodRead the scoring and revision policyWhich measures the ledger will compute once an outcome exists, and how corrections are appended.