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Will the U.S. unemployment rate be above 4.5% in July 2026?

Resolves Yes only if the Employment Situation for July 2026 initially reports unemployment rate strictly greater than 4.5 percent. The archived release value governs; later revisions do not change the score.

JMM probability at issue5%
StatusSettled Scheduled releaseAug 7, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT ModelBLS initial-release trailing-frequency model, version 2.0.0 Point-in-time inputs counted22

How the probability was made

Laplace-smoothed one-step model using adjacent official initial-release changes from the latest 25-calendar-month window.

Calculation (0 hits + 1) / (22 observations + 2)
Which gives 0.0417
Published probability 0.05

Those two do not match, and that is the rule working. Every probability on this desk is Laplace's rule of succession, hits plus one over observations plus two, and is then bounded before publication. This record's own arithmetic gives 0.0417; the bound lifted it to 0.05. A model that has watched 22 releases and never seen the event has not earned the right to say never, so the desk is structurally incapable of claiming certainty, and will lose points on any question where certainty was correct.

Assume the series stays on the side of the threshold it is already on Registered as statePersistence in protocol jmm-model-evaluation-2026-08-03-v1, hashed into the same locked fields as the probability so it cannot be chosen after the fact.
Comparator
5%
JMM
5%
Disagreement
0 pts

The only way this can resolve Yes

Comparison
strictly greater than
Threshold
4.5 percent
Unit
percent
Which vintage counts
official initial release archive
Cutoff
Aug 7, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT
Settled by
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsEmployment Situation archived news releases

The outcome is read from that source and nowhere else. Settlement receives its own record and cannot overwrite this one.

22 values, 0 of them above the line

This is the vector itself, frozen with the record, in the order the model read it. Counting it reproduces the numerator in the calculation above, which is the only claim being made for it.

  1. 4.4
  2. 4.1
  3. 4.1
  4. 4.2
  5. 4.3
  6. 4.1
  7. 4.1
  8. 4.3
  9. 4.3
  10. 4.2
  11. 4.2
  12. 4.1
  13. 4.3
  14. 4.3
  15. 4.3
  16. 4.0
  17. 4.1
  18. 4.3
  19. 4.1
  20. 4.2
  21. 4.2
  22. 4.1

The vector is shorter than the 24 releases below it, and its entries are not those months' own values. That is what "Laplace-smoothed one-step model using adjacent official initial-release changes from the latest 25-calendar-month window" means: the model reads adjacent release pairs rather than releases, so marking the release table against the threshold would produce a different count from the one this record froze.

The releases behind it

Not the current series. Each row is the value as first published, read from that release's own archived page, with the SHA-256 of the bytes JMM parsed. Later revisions to any of these numbers do not change this record, because the row is pinned to the document it came from.

Archived initial releases in the model window, oldest first
Reference period As first published Released Archived release and artifact
Jun 1, 2024 4.1 Open the release b351953d340824ec1248edd96d1181b2a7e3363ca37decdb34643954368e0b50
Jul 1, 2024 4.3 Open the release 3168109daa50e17aaf2a23609fcef39e26abaa401b3d76ac6fc8e1f539a11d3b
Aug 1, 2024 4.2 Open the release 06eeee854af130f5f5202fd33d44a59cb0ac9cadce6e45ef87ae95cb995fb758
Sep 1, 2024 4.1 Open the release 867ee50ca0a2bb98c12116cb51572b8b0b870ab24a00e373808f5bbd13e63fbc
Oct 1, 2024 4.1 Open the release 8f3e50b7f46520a6fef399cc33d95bb9a0dfe6909fd814babe553199d87256f7
Nov 1, 2024 4.2 Open the release ce3c531cec334c1d63086381dbc9d85bb103df61ba8880c20eacc12538bf7a22
Dec 1, 2024 4.1 Open the release acb8a76da864ce348e8e509a615565e65264c92470f833c8818772d1a9cbae4b
Jan 1, 2025 4.0 Open the release 8a993d6720d781c60a553e422d38a2c5151cf1dc68fc6bc188b243801a7a15c7
Feb 1, 2025 4.1 Open the release 0c736bba2ed8a7405b79a56ee83bf6c80542adbabec7d8d8d76c1c77c3473574
Mar 1, 2025 4.2 Open the release f6d2493fdd7eeea99148ac881872b11d59aa3b57e1d135222c215ddca67dd13d
Apr 1, 2025 4.2 Open the release 44e1992be7ac433f32ae9f02586e70809e4ae4e2d107092f00d0d56c576d3cd0
May 1, 2025 4.2 Open the release 2a10f67a13d52996ba4084756879748c14292a95f596e0d63d2ab788e5ad4073
Jun 1, 2025 4.1 Open the release 940b8d3f853dae3a1131b9b88aded46c65d42516ce2c60e2faa829e4af8a5676
Jul 1, 2025 4.2 Open the release 983f22b2f5643736feb9c05e361066829b8d93443d108bc7988f22d2e4e1e91d
Aug 1, 2025 4.3 Open the release a7cb63f82094877971154d0fa5e1f39d40d85a60114d958ab3f715552256c02d
Sep 1, 2025 4.4 Open the release ba3236a11ebcfad8e630cac4bacf42b25816a3d7af887efe1609e65f821cafe5
Nov 1, 2025 4.6 Open the release bdccdb859dc3ea9ea90c3b6bdba6cc2c05e855d5a858adcb3e742390c824ac92
Dec 1, 2025 4.4 Open the release 017ad44cf5a867f4091311692e5b19a8c4be75e25ae5ff124b92f4d77a82e19e
Jan 1, 2026 4.3 Open the release 352a9f393048198555b47e52d73b44d717181c4df6194bfcb379ed60013eccea
Feb 1, 2026 4.4 Open the release 90e21d73b540aa44c269ac32d73bb78ea0ee6fb5fcc4fa32ed1eafb018c7a900
Mar 1, 2026 4.3 Open the release 6332b3248dac4c869c7255d7390b7ca06e2f9ef69ce3ea8dcff6d5e3b3f6bec9
Apr 1, 2026 4.3 Open the release e387bb637bdd0f9ba711ecb516348f2c3398bd71675f09e3271f34142ff1e4f1
May 1, 2026 4.3 Open the release 1c4c32648b8171d22cf177edb5c0c6b4133dfe9ce4ac5ab1d0573a7407185cd5
Jun 1, 2026 4.2 Open the release 491582fd4b6e347aea75fe332c3e54d28d24e924a67c5a990812e0ed075f6ebd

What was retrieved, and when

Every source below was retrieved at or before the issue time. A record citing evidence retrieved after its own issuance is refused by the publication path.

Continue auditing the record

PredictionsReturn to the full ledger

Every published probability against the comparator frozen beside it, widest disagreement first.

EventsInspect the release this resolves against

The publisher calendar entry that fixes the cutoff, with its own source clocks.

MethodRead the scoring and revision policy

Which measures the ledger will compute once an outcome exists, and how corrections are appended.