Will U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rise by more than 196,000 in July 2026?

Resolves Yes only if the Employment Situation for July 2026 initially reports a total nonfarm payroll change greater than 196 thousand. The archived release value governs; later revisions do not change the score.

JMM probability at issue23% Frozen Aug 2, 2026, 7:08 PM EDT

StatusSettled Scheduled releaseAug 7, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT ModelBLS initial-release trailing-frequency model, version 2.0.0 Point-in-time inputs counted24

How the probability was made

Laplace-smoothed frequency of initially published payroll changes above 196 thousand in the latest 25-calendar-month window.

Calculation (5 hits + 1) / (24 observations + 2)

Which gives 0.2308

Published probability 0.23

Transition rate between the two threshold states across every archived release Registered as expandingStateMarkov in protocol jmm-model-evaluation-2026-08-03-v1, hashed into the same locked fields as the probability so it cannot be chosen after the fact.

Comparator: 44%
JMM: 23%
Disagreement: -21 pts

The only way this can resolve Yes

Comparison: strictly greater than
Threshold: 196 thousands of people
Unit: thousands of people
Which vintage counts: official initial release archive
Cutoff: Aug 7, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT
Settled by: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsEmployment Situation archived news releases

The outcome is read from that source and nowhere else. Settlement receives its own record and cannot overwrite this one.

24 values, 5 of them above the line

This is the vector itself, frozen with the record, in the order the model read it. Counting it reproduces the numerator in the calculation above, which is the only claim being made for it.

Each entry is one archived release, so the vector and the release table below are the same 24 numbers.

The releases behind it

Not the current series. Each row is the value as first published, read from that release's own archived page, with the SHA-256 of the bytes JMM parsed. Later revisions to any of these numbers do not change this record, because the row is pinned to the document it came from.

Archived initial releases in the model window, oldest first
Reference period	As first published	Released	Archived release and artifact
Jun 1, 2024	206	Jul 5, 2024, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release b351953d340824ec1248edd96d1181b2a7e3363ca37decdb34643954368e0b50
Jul 1, 2024	114	Aug 2, 2024, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 3168109daa50e17aaf2a23609fcef39e26abaa401b3d76ac6fc8e1f539a11d3b
Aug 1, 2024	142	Sep 6, 2024, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 06eeee854af130f5f5202fd33d44a59cb0ac9cadce6e45ef87ae95cb995fb758
Sep 1, 2024	254	Oct 4, 2024, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 867ee50ca0a2bb98c12116cb51572b8b0b870ab24a00e373808f5bbd13e63fbc
Oct 1, 2024	12	Nov 1, 2024, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 8f3e50b7f46520a6fef399cc33d95bb9a0dfe6909fd814babe553199d87256f7
Nov 1, 2024	227	Dec 6, 2024, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release ce3c531cec334c1d63086381dbc9d85bb103df61ba8880c20eacc12538bf7a22
Dec 1, 2024	256	Jan 10, 2025, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release acb8a76da864ce348e8e509a615565e65264c92470f833c8818772d1a9cbae4b
Jan 1, 2025	143	Feb 7, 2025, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release 8a993d6720d781c60a553e422d38a2c5151cf1dc68fc6bc188b243801a7a15c7
Feb 1, 2025	151	Mar 7, 2025, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release 0c736bba2ed8a7405b79a56ee83bf6c80542adbabec7d8d8d76c1c77c3473574
Mar 1, 2025	228	Apr 4, 2025, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release f6d2493fdd7eeea99148ac881872b11d59aa3b57e1d135222c215ddca67dd13d
Apr 1, 2025	177	May 2, 2025, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 44e1992be7ac433f32ae9f02586e70809e4ae4e2d107092f00d0d56c576d3cd0
May 1, 2025	139	Jun 6, 2025, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 2a10f67a13d52996ba4084756879748c14292a95f596e0d63d2ab788e5ad4073
Jun 1, 2025	147	Jul 3, 2025, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 940b8d3f853dae3a1131b9b88aded46c65d42516ce2c60e2faa829e4af8a5676
Jul 1, 2025	73	Aug 1, 2025, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 983f22b2f5643736feb9c05e361066829b8d93443d108bc7988f22d2e4e1e91d
Aug 1, 2025	22	Sep 5, 2025, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release a7cb63f82094877971154d0fa5e1f39d40d85a60114d958ab3f715552256c02d
Sep 1, 2025	119	Nov 20, 2025, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release ba3236a11ebcfad8e630cac4bacf42b25816a3d7af887efe1609e65f821cafe5
Nov 1, 2025	64	Dec 16, 2025, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release bdccdb859dc3ea9ea90c3b6bdba6cc2c05e855d5a858adcb3e742390c824ac92
Dec 1, 2025	50	Jan 9, 2026, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release 017ad44cf5a867f4091311692e5b19a8c4be75e25ae5ff124b92f4d77a82e19e
Jan 1, 2026	130	Feb 11, 2026, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release 352a9f393048198555b47e52d73b44d717181c4df6194bfcb379ed60013eccea
Feb 1, 2026	-92	Mar 6, 2026, 8:30 AM EST	Open the release 90e21d73b540aa44c269ac32d73bb78ea0ee6fb5fcc4fa32ed1eafb018c7a900
Mar 1, 2026	178	Apr 3, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 6332b3248dac4c869c7255d7390b7ca06e2f9ef69ce3ea8dcff6d5e3b3f6bec9
Apr 1, 2026	115	May 8, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release e387bb637bdd0f9ba711ecb516348f2c3398bd71675f09e3271f34142ff1e4f1
May 1, 2026	172	Jun 5, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 1c4c32648b8171d22cf177edb5c0c6b4133dfe9ce4ac5ab1d0573a7407185cd5
Jun 1, 2026	57	Jul 2, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT	Open the release 491582fd4b6e347aea75fe332c3e54d28d24e924a67c5a990812e0ed075f6ebd

What was retrieved, and when

Every source below was retrieved at or before the issue time. A record citing evidence retrieved after its own issuance is refused by the publication path.

Employment Situation archived news releasesU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Retrieved Aug 2, 2026, 7:08 PM EDT 2e55df17109bbf28d47e8b154b76e010b1e815472d61650fbd0a52f099d39fe7
Total nonfarm payroll employment (CES0000000001)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Retrieved Aug 2, 2026, 11:57 AM EDT
Employment Situation release calendarU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Retrieved Aug 2, 2026, 7:08 PM EDT

Frozen bytes and the recorded issue time

The ledger records this manifest 7 minutes and 12 seconds before this record's own cutoff.

Locked-field fingerprint 42e0768b61b2c77d757534058ba2806c68dc91a8cd67f3650d16315a06b486ac SHA-256 over the question, probability, issue time, cutoff, rule, sources, resolution policy and model this record froze. Any later edit to any of them changes it.
Manifest artifact cd9824d6e36359dcd490e67de0fbd3b900035a66d1850dd75cdf990b4d8f083d SHA-256 over the published manifest bytes, and also the manifest's own path (forecast-publications/cd9824d6e36359dcd490e67de0fbd3b900035a66d1850dd75cdf990b4d8f083d.json), so the address and the content cannot drift apart.
Commit and tree 1c7c70bbe9bddb28e4fb98df095ec0a603330c37 / c1333b6f38f9162f518207ccff5e959930977ca5 A commit hash covers its tree, which covers the manifest blob. Changing one byte of a published forecast changes the blob, the tree and the commit id.

Frozen: Aug 2, 2026, 7:08 PM EDT
Witnessed: Aug 7, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT
Cutoff: Aug 7, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT

Download the public witness manifest

The publication path grades its own witness on three levels. These records sit at the lowest: the commit is made by the repository owner and is not signed, so the committer date is a clock JMM controls. Enabling commit signing, or committing through the GitHub API, moves every later record up without a code change.

The exact manifest bytes are now public and content addressed, so anyone can download them and recompute the artifact hash. This mirror was published after the historical issue time and does not retroactively attest that time.

A later forecast earns an independently checkable issue time only when its manifest reaches the public locked archive, or a public GitHub repository through a GitHub-created commit, before cutoff. A site build timestamp does not qualify.

Read the publication standard

Continue auditing the record

PredictionsReturn to the full ledger

Every published probability against the comparator frozen beside it, widest disagreement first.

EventsInspect the release this resolves against

The publisher calendar entry that fixes the cutoff, with its own source clocks.

MethodRead the scoring and revision policy

Which measures the ledger will compute once an outcome exists, and how corrections are appended.