Will U.S. CPI-U inflation be above 3.0% year over year in July 2026?

22 values, 21 of them above the line

This is the vector itself, frozen with the record, in the order the model read it. Counting it reproduces the numerator in the calculation above, which is the only claim being made for it.

1. 3.5
2. 3.5
3. 3.5
4. 3.5
5. 3.3
6. 3.4
7. 4.1
8. 3.8
9. 3.6
10. 3.7
11. 3.6
12. 3.7
13. 3.5
14. 3.7
15. 3.6
16. 3.4
17. 3.8
18. 3.9
19. 4.5
20. 4.3
21. 4.0
22. 3.0

The vector is shorter than the 24 releases below it, and its entries are not those months' own values. That is what "Laplace-smoothed one-step model using adjacent official initial-release changes from the latest 25-calendar-month window" means: the model reads adjacent release pairs rather than releases, so marking the release table against the threshold would produce a different count from the one this record froze.

The releases behind it

Not the current series. Each row is the value as first published, read from that release's own archived page, with the SHA-256 of the bytes JMM parsed. Later revisions to any of these numbers do not change this record, because the row is pinned to the document it came from.