Strategy backtester
Five registered expert strategies, run through the same five-year window of real, sourced asset-class returns, so a guru's advice can be checked in dollars instead of taken on faith.
Worked example — Best of five strategies, $10,000 invested five years ago: $18,620. Ramsey 15% into growth funds, 86.2% over five years. Beat a plain S&P 500 index fund's $18,620 by $0.
$10,000: The page's own default and the amount used throughout its sourced copy.
Window: August 2021 to the latest verified observation (mid-2026). Returns are total returns, dividends reinvested where the source reports them, and are not adjusted for fees, taxes, or inflation.
Each strategy row applies the documented composition from the strategy registry to the sourced asset-class returns below. Asset figures with an estimate label are approximations; their basis is stated on the page.
5-year total return by asset class
Every strategy row above is built from these six sourced returns, August 2021 to the latest verified observation. Gold is the best single asset over this window; ARK Innovation is the worst, because the window opens near its February 2021 peak.
| Asset | Ticker | 5-year total return | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | SPY | 86.2% | 13.3% annualized total return over five years, dividends reinvested, converted to cumulative | Source |
| Long-term US Treasuries | TLT | -28.6% | 5-year total return of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Source |
| Gold | GLD | 127.0% | 5-year total return reported between +120% and +128% across July 2021 to July 2026 windows; midpoint used | Source |
| Bitcoin | BTC | 33.0% | Computed from documented levels: about $47,100 on August 31, 2021 (FRED CBBTCUSD) to about $62,700 in early August 2026 (Strategy disclosure sale prices) | Source |
| Disruptive innovation equities | ARKK | -35.0% | 8.2% annualized 5-year loss reported by two trackers, converted to cumulative; the fund is down about 45% over five years | Source |
| Cash and T-bills (estimate) | BIL | 17.0% | Estimate, about 3.1% annualized, from the Fed funds path: near zero in 2021, above 5% by 2023-2024, easing into 2026 | Source |
Was Dave Ramsey's 12% return claim right?
Contradicted: the claimed 11.86% is an arithmetic average, not a compound return, and the S&P 500 has actually compounded at about 10% nominal since 1926. Read the full audit, with sources. The Ramsey row above stands in the S&P 500's own total return as a generous proxy for "good growth stock mutual funds": no fund fees, no selection risk.
The strategies are the registered ones, not caricatures
The 90/10 model follows the 2013 letter instruction, not Berkshire's own stock. The All-Weather row uses the simplified 30/55/15 split. The ARK row prices the fund itself, because that is the vehicle the five-platform thesis lives in. Each strategy page shows the source and the model's limitations; this table is the same instruction run through one shared window.
A five-year window is a mood, not a verdict
The window begins near the February 2021 speculative peak, which is why ARK Innovation is the worst row and gold the best single asset. A different start date would rank the strategies differently: five years is long enough to be interesting and short enough to be a mood. The publication standard requires any future claim audit to score the whole defined record rather than this one window.
What the people behind the strategies own today Influencer portfolio: disclosed 13F holdings 
Where their claims get graded Claims scoreboard: the rule, the deadline, the source What Pro adds to backtests
Longer windows, fee-adjusted rows, and rolling start dates are Pro features. The launch list sends one email at launch.