JMM Research runs a forecasting machine against the prediction markets

It is up +$3,023 since May 2026.
Every call published first, graded after.

See today's edges How the grading works

$100 paper stake per call at market price, before fees. A research record, not advice.

Overnight model run

Reading overnight sourcesecmwf.intweather.govkalshi.compolymarket.com9 more

Tracked daily

Open predictions

All open predictions

AI & tech Settles Mar 1, 2027

OpenAI ships GPT-6 before March 2027

Settles on official OpenAI release announcement

JMM 34%

Market 41¢

7-day trend

Back No · EV +$12 per $100 7 pts below market

AI & tech Settles Mar 15, 2027

Nvidia unveils its next GPU architecture before GTC 2027

Settles on official Nvidia keynote or press release

JMM 62%

Market 58¢

7-day trend

Back Yes · EV +$7 per $100 4 pts above market

AI & tech Settles Dec 31, 2026

Anthropic's next funding round values it above $350B

Settles on confirmed terms reported by two major outlets

JMM 47%

Market 40¢

7-day trend

Back Yes · EV +$17 per $100 7 pts above market

On the record

The full scoreboard

Jim Cramer Mad Money picks vs. the tape 39% of 9 claims held up

Cathie Wood ARK price targets, graded 71% of 20 claims held up

Graham Stephan YouTube money advice, checked 43% of 31 claims held up

Dave Ramsey 12% return claims and baby steps 76% of 42 claims held up

Caleb Hammer Financial audit claims, audited 48% of 53 claims held up

Ray Dalio Macro cycle calls vs. what happened 80% of 8 claims held up

Howard Marks Memo calls on cycles and risk 53% of 19 claims held up

Morgan Housel Behavioral money claims, checked 25% of 30 claims held up

Joe Weisenthal Macro takes vs. the data that followed 57% of 41 claims held up

Mohamed El-Erian Fed and macro forecasts, tracked 30% of 52 claims held up

Nouriel Roubini Recession calls, timestamped 62% of 7 claims held up

Jim Bianco Rates calls vs. the yield curve 34% of 18 claims held up

Liz Ann Sonders Market outlook calls, graded 67% of 29 claims held up

Charlie Bilello Chart claims, source-checked 39% of 40 claims held up

Peter Schiff Gold and dollar calls, tracked since 71% of 51 claims held up

Raoul Pal Macro and crypto cycle calls 43% of 6 claims held up

Anthony Pompliano Bitcoin price targets, graded 76% of 17 claims held up

Bill Ackman Public position calls vs. outcomes 48% of 28 claims held up

Chamath Palihapitiya SPAC and macro calls, checked 80% of 39 claims held up

Gary Vaynerchuk Hustle and asset claims, checked 53% of 50 claims held up

Humphrey Yang Personal finance tips, graded 25% of 5 claims held up

Sahil Bloom Money frameworks vs. the numbers 57% of 16 claims held up

Ben Carlson Market history claims, checked 30% of 27 claims held up

Michael Batnick Behavioral calls vs. the record 62% of 38 claims held up

Barry Ritholtz Big-picture calls, timestamped 34% of 49 claims held up

Jason Zweig Investor-claim myths, checked 67% of 60 claims held up

Meb Faber Backtested claims vs. live results 39% of 15 claims held up

Lyn Alden Macro and crypto framework calls 71% of 26 claims held up

Danielle DiMartino Booth Fed policy calls, tracked 43% of 37 claims held up

Alfonso Peccatiello Rates and liquidity calls, graded 76% of 48 claims held up

Conor Sen Housing and labor calls, checked 48% of 59 claims held up

The Kobeissi Letter Viral market threads, fact-checked 80% of 14 claims held up

Ramit Sethi "Rich life" money rules, checked 53% of 25 claims held up

JL Collins Simple-path claims vs. the data 25% of 36 claims held up

Steve Hanke Inflation and currency calls, tracked 57% of 47 claims held up

Every grade links to its evidence in the public claims ledger.

Recently settled

Full track record

Date	Contract	JMM	Market	Outcome	Brier edge	$100 staked
Aug 1	Meta beats Q2 revenue consensus	60%	68¢	No	-0.102	+$213
Aug 1	Anthropic announces a new enterprise AI partnership in May	51%	65¢	Yes	+0.118	−$100
Jul 31	Nvidia announces a buyback above $1B	36%	43¢	No	-0.055	+$75
Jul 31	Netflix beats Q2 revenue consensus	48%	56¢	Yes	+0.077	−$100
Jul 31	Bitcoin dominance falls below 45% in Jul	45%	37¢	No	+0.066	−$100
Jul 29	Jul jobs print above 196k	71%	61¢	Yes	-0.068	+$64
Jul 29	Bitcoin dominance falls below 48% in May	68%	60¢	Yes	-0.058	+$67
Jul 28	Alphabet announces a new enterprise AI partnership in Jul	84%	69¢	Yes	-0.071	+$45
These 8 calls, $100 each						+$164

Brier edge = our Brier score minus the market's at forecast time; negative means our forecast was closer to what happened. $100 staked = paper P&L of backing our side of each call at the market price, before fees. Paper fills only; no real money is traded.

Download the ledger (CSV)