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On the record

Public claims about money, graded against outcomes. We check the claim as stated, at its strongest reading, and show the working either way.

Who What we grade Claims checked Held up
Jim Cramer avatar Jim Cramer Mad Money picks vs. the tape 9 39%
Cathie Wood avatar Cathie Wood ARK price targets, graded 20 71%
Graham Stephan avatar Graham Stephan YouTube money advice, checked 31 43%
Dave Ramsey avatar Dave Ramsey 12% return claims and baby steps 42 76%
Caleb Hammer avatar Caleb Hammer Financial audit claims, audited 53 48%
Ray Dalio avatar Ray Dalio Macro cycle calls vs. what happened 8 80%
Howard Marks avatar Howard Marks Memo calls on cycles and risk 19 53%
Morgan Housel avatar Morgan Housel Behavioral money claims, checked 30 25%
Joe Weisenthal avatar Joe Weisenthal Macro takes vs. the data that followed 41 57%
Mohamed El-Erian avatar Mohamed El-Erian Fed and macro forecasts, tracked 52 30%
Nouriel Roubini avatar Nouriel Roubini Recession calls, timestamped 7 62%
Jim Bianco avatar Jim Bianco Rates calls vs. the yield curve 18 34%
Liz Ann Sonders avatar Liz Ann Sonders Market outlook calls, graded 29 67%
Charlie Bilello avatar Charlie Bilello Chart claims, source-checked 40 39%
Peter Schiff avatar Peter Schiff Gold and dollar calls, tracked since 51 71%
Raoul Pal avatar Raoul Pal Macro and crypto cycle calls 6 43%
Anthony Pompliano avatar Anthony Pompliano Bitcoin price targets, graded 17 76%
Bill Ackman avatar Bill Ackman Public position calls vs. outcomes 28 48%
Chamath Palihapitiya avatar Chamath Palihapitiya SPAC and macro calls, checked 39 80%
Gary Vaynerchuk avatar Gary Vaynerchuk Hustle and asset claims, checked 50 53%
Humphrey Yang avatar Humphrey Yang Personal finance tips, graded 5 25%
Sahil Bloom avatar Sahil Bloom Money frameworks vs. the numbers 16 57%
Ben Carlson avatar Ben Carlson Market history claims, checked 27 30%
Michael Batnick avatar Michael Batnick Behavioral calls vs. the record 38 62%
Barry Ritholtz avatar Barry Ritholtz Big-picture calls, timestamped 49 34%
Jason Zweig avatar Jason Zweig Investor-claim myths, checked 60 67%
Meb Faber avatar Meb Faber Backtested claims vs. live results 15 39%
Lyn Alden avatar Lyn Alden Macro and crypto framework calls 26 71%
Danielle DiMartino Booth avatar Danielle DiMartino Booth Fed policy calls, tracked 37 43%
Alfonso Peccatiello avatar Alfonso Peccatiello Rates and liquidity calls, graded 48 76%
Conor Sen avatar Conor Sen Housing and labor calls, checked 59 48%
The Kobeissi Letter avatar The Kobeissi Letter Viral market threads, fact-checked 14 80%
Ramit Sethi avatar Ramit Sethi "Rich life" money rules, checked 25 53%
JL Collins avatar JL Collins Simple-path claims vs. the data 36 25%
Steve Hanke avatar Steve Hanke Inflation and currency calls, tracked 47 57%

Each verdict links to the claim as made, the test, and the data. Disagreements get a reply window before publication, and corrections are appended per our standards.