Microsoft
Azure and Copilot are the two numbers that move this stock.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 0 of 5 right
9 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on Microsoft 2 of 5 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market +0.034 mean
18 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats quarterly consensus we said 43% Yes
Q1 2026 Microsoft closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 50% No
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 45% Yes
Jun 2026 Microsoft announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 24% Yes
Jun 2026 Microsoft guidance raise on the next print we said 59% No
In the record
"Microsoft can double Azure growth again within two years" (sell-side note) Unsupported
"Microsoft is the safest name in its sector" (widely repeated) Mostly true
"Microsoft's next product will be its biggest launch yet" (company press release) Unsupported