Nvidia
The company the AI cycle prices everything against.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 3 of 5 right
20 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on Nvidia 2 of 5 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.064 mean
15 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats datacenter revenue consensus we said 26% Yes
Q1 2026 Nvidia closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 54% No
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 55% Yes
Jun 2026 Nvidia announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 75% Yes
Jun 2026 Nvidia guidance raise on the next print we said 67% Yes
Open A 10%+ single-day drop in the stock this quarter we said 38% Open
In the record
"Nvidia's next product will be its biggest launch yet" (company press release) Unsupported
"Nvidia is overvalued at any price above today's" (bear case, forum consensus) Unsupported