Tesla
Delivery numbers and Elon Musk headlines, in one ticker.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 5 of 7 right
6 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on Tesla 4 of 7 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.024 mean
5 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats quarterly consensus we said 22% No
Q1 2026 Tesla closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 66% No
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 23% No
Jun 2026 Tesla announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 31% No
Jun 2026 Tesla guidance raise on the next print we said 76% Yes
Jul 2026 A 10%+ single-day drop in the stock this quarter we said 82% Yes
Q2 2026 Tesla beats EPS consensus we said 25% Yes
In the record
"Tesla is overvalued at any price above today's" (bear case, forum consensus) Unsupported
"Tesla can double delivery guidance again within two years" (sell-side note) Unsupported
"Tesla never misses on delivery guidance" (trader shorthand) False