AMD
The clearest second-source bet in AI accelerators.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 4 of 5 right
22 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on AMD 3 of 5 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.062 mean
16 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats quarterly consensus we said 30% Yes
Q1 2026 AMD closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 34% No
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 74% Yes
Jun 2026 AMD announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 24% No
Jun 2026 AMD guidance raise on the next print we said 18% No
Open A 10%+ single-day drop in the stock this quarter we said 82% Open
In the record
"AMD never misses on MI-series shipments" (trader shorthand) False