Apple
The most-tracked earnings print on the calendar.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 4 of 5 right
20 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on Apple 3 of 5 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.034 mean
10 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats quarterly consensus we said 15% No
Q1 2026 Apple closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 69% Yes
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 61% No
Jun 2026 Apple announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 42% No
Jun 2026 Apple guidance raise on the next print we said 35% No
In the record
"Apple's next product will be its biggest launch yet" (company press release) Unsupported
"Apple never misses on iPhone upgrade cycle" (trader shorthand) False