Tesla at $2,000 per share by 2027
Under review The 2027 window is still open, so no verdict yet. The track record context is poor for ARK's comparable target: the March 2021 base case of $3,000 by 2025 implied a price Tesla never reached, and the model's value hinges on robotaxi economics that were still unproven as of the latest verification.
Show 4 supporting points
- March 2021: ARK's base case was $3,000 per share by 2025, implying roughly 358 percent upside from $654.87. The August 2022 three-for-one split makes that $1,000 in current shares. The deadline year itself produced Tesla's record close, $489.88 on December 16, 2025. That is under half the split-adjusted target, and the year ended with the stock nowhere near it.
- April 2023: the target moved out to $2,000 by 2027, with robotaxis contributing 67 percent of expected enterprise value.
- As of the June 2025 Austin robotaxi trial, the service ran roughly a dozen Model Ys with safety monitors inside, not the autonomous network the model assumes.
- The claim is scoreable only at the 2027 deadline, which keeps it in the open bucket with a documented benchmark to grade against.
ARK's Expected Value For Tesla In 2027: $2,000 Per Share
This is the published title and thesis of ARK Invest's April 20, 2023 open-source valuation model update, not a spoken remark. JMM quotes ARK's own words rather than putting a synthesized sentence in Cathie Wood's mouth; she is named because she is ARK's CEO and the model is published under her firm. The same article puts the bear and bull cases at the 25th and 75th percentiles of one million Monte Carlo simulations, roughly $1,400 and $2,500 per share, and attributes 67 percent of expected 2027 enterprise value to robotaxis, meaning the target is mostly a bet on a service that had not launched commercially as of the mid-2025 verification.
What happened, dated
Every entry carries the date and the record behind it. Sources are indexed against the register below.
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Previous model
ARK publishes a $3,000 by 2025 base case, alongside a $1,500 bear and $4,000 bull case. Source 2
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Split
Tesla executes a three-for-one stock split, which divides ARK's targets by three. Source 2
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New model
ARK's updated open-source model sets $2,000 by 2027 as the base case, with robotaxis at 67 percent of expected value. Source 1
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Cybercab event
Tesla unveils a robotaxi prototype with production announced for 2026. Source 4
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Austin trial
Tesla launches a robotaxi trial in Austin with roughly a dozen Model Ys and safety monitors on board. Source 4
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Window closes
The 2027 deadline makes this claim scoreable for the first time. Source 1
What the evidence shows
A model with a driver
Two thirds of the 2027 value is a robotaxi business with a ride-hail price per mile, an addressable market, and an adoption curve. Each of those inputs is a bet. The honest way to read the target is as the sum of those bets, which is why the audit publishes the assumption breakdown instead of the headline number alone.
The $3,000 precedent
The March 2021 model is the best calibration JMM has. Split-adjusted, it required $1,000 a share by 2025, against a record close of $489.88 set in December 2025, inside the deadline year and less than half the number the model needed. That failure does not prove the 2027 number wrong, but it sets the base rate: the previous comparable model missed by a factor of two on a four-year horizon.
What would settle this by 2027
Three observable questions: does an unsupervised robotaxi service run at commercial scale, does it achieve the assumed ride-hail economics, and does the market pay the modeled multiple. The audit will grade the claim on the evidence at the deadline, not on ARK's model confidence.
Every receipt, with retrieval dates
JMM attaches a statement only when the contemporaneous primary record and an exact locator exist. Retrieved dates are when JMM last verified each link.
Evidence strength: Quoted from the primary record. The statement source, a second publisher, and an official series are all in the register below.
Headline figure, percentile table, and robotaxi contribution
Base, bear, and bull cases for 2025
Model worksheets and Monte Carlo inputs
Coverage of the Austin robotaxi launch and its safety monitors
Record closing price of $489.88 on December 16, 2025, and the prior record close of $479.86