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Cathie Wood's wright's Law cost curve

Apply Wright's Law to current cost, cumulative production, and an editable learning rate to see how production doublings change unit cost.

Cathie Wood of ARK Invest Cathie Wood Reviewed Aug 6, 2026 Rule located in ARK Invest, 2026

Portrait: Caroline Wood, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Self-hosted by JMM.

Interactive model

Put your numbers through the rule

The source establishes the rule. The values below belong to you, and the output is JMM's deterministic calculation.

Make the assumptions yours

Every field recalculates immediately. Changed values can be copied into a shareable URL.

Modeled future unit cost$55.14
Production doublings
3
Dollar cost decline
$44.86
Percent cost decline
44.9%

The curve advances with cumulative production, not calendar time.

Unit cost against cumulative production doublings
$0$25$50$75$100023
Modeled unit costProduction doublings
Inspect the calculationThe same result in a readable record view

0 doublings

Unit cost
$100
Decline from today
0.0%

1 doubling

Unit cost
$82.00
Decline from today
18.0%

2 doublings

Unit cost
$67.24
Decline from today
32.8%

3 doublings

Unit cost
$55.14
Decline from today
44.9%

4 doublings

Unit cost
$45.21
Decline from today
54.8%
Source and translation

What the source says, and what the calculator adds

Source-supported ruleARK describes a constant percentage cost decline for each cumulative doubling of units produced.
JMM calculationJMM exposes the production ratio, number of doublings, learning rate, and full cost curve instead of hiding them in a single forecast.
Formula and methodFuture cost = current cost × (1 − learning rate)log₂(future cumulative units ÷ current cumulative units).
ARK Invest Aug 3, 2026What Is Wright's Law?“What is Wright’s Law?” and “Wright’s Law Formula”
Decision notes

What changes the answer

Production, not the calendar, is the independent variable

The same cost decline can happen quickly or slowly depending on how fast cumulative units grow.

Learning rate sensitivity compounds

A few percentage points per doubling can create a large difference after several doublings, so the input should never be treated as a hidden constant.

A real empirical regularity, routinely used to smuggle in a demand forecast.

The underlying observation is well documented across manufacturing: cost per unit falls a roughly constant percentage for every doubling of cumulative output. Where it goes wrong is in the hands of an investment case. The law needs cumulative production to double, and production only doubles if someone buys the units, which is the thing being forecast. Feed a learning rate and a future volume into this page and you get a cost, not a company. JMM would use Wright’s Law to sanity-check whether a claimed price point is physically reachable, and never as evidence that it will be reached.

Written by the JMM editor. This is a view, not a recommendation for your circumstances. Who writes this

Not the calculator’s limits. The rule’s.

  1. The learning rate is fitted, not given

    Every published learning rate comes from a historical series for one product in one industry. Carrying a solar-module rate into batteries or a battery rate into robotaxis is a choice, and the sensitivity on this page shows how much that choice decides.

  2. Curves flatten when the remaining cost is physics

    Learning removes process inefficiency. It does not remove the cost of lithium, silicon or electricity, so a curve extrapolated past the raw-material floor produces a price nobody can build at.

Limits

What this model does not know

  • The learning rate is a user input unless separately established from a historical series.
  • The model says nothing by itself about demand, margins, competition, valuation, or stock returns.
  • Future production can be lower than entered or fail to reach the modeled level.
Questions people ask

Before you use the result

Is Wright’s Law the same as Moore’s Law?

No. This page relates cost to cumulative production, while Moore’s Law is commonly framed around computing density over time.

Does lower cost guarantee a good investment?

No. Cost curves do not determine demand, pricing power, capital structure, or valuation.

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