Put Cathie Wood's rules through your numbers
Three rules JMM has located in a dated source, rebuilt as a working calculator, and taken a position on.
- Sources located
- ARK Invest Europe, ARK Invest
- Source years
- 2023 to 2026
- JMM verdicts
- contested, depends on you, overstated
Five-year return hurdle calculator
What five-year growth rate connects today’s value with your target?
contested A 15% selection hurdle is a filter on what ARK buys, not a return anyone is owed. ARK Invest Europe, 2024Open model
Wright's Law cost curve
How much could unit cost fall after production doubles?
depends on you A real empirical regularity, routinely used to smuggle in a demand forecast. ARK Invest, 2026Open model
Disruptive innovation exposure map
How concentrated is your five-platform innovation map?
overstated Five platforms, one bet. The convergence that makes the thesis exciting is what removes the diversification. ARK Invest, 2023Open modelNot every rule here survives its own arithmetic
JMM does not grade these rules as a set. Three of them carry a verdict other than "holds up", and the page says why in JMM's own words rather than leaving the evidence to speak for itself.
Each page separates three things people usually run together: what the source states, what JMM's model adds to make it computable, and where the rule itself breaks. The last one is not the calculator's limitations list. It is the failure of the idea, which is the part the person who published the rule has no reason to write down.