Brian Preston's wealth multiplier calculator
The Money Guy wealth multiplier turns a dollar invested at any age into a figure at 65 — $647 at birth, $88 at 20, $7 at 40. Reproduce it from the show’s own return schedule, then deflate it, which the source states it does not do.
Put your numbers through the rule
The source establishes the rule. The values below belong to you, and the output is JMM's deterministic calculation.
Every field recalculates immediately. Changed values can be copied into a shareable URL.
- Multiplier on each dollar
- 23.1×9.0% a year for 35 years
- Value in today’s money
- $8,196deflated at 3.0% a year
- Purchasing power lost to inflation
- $14,867the line the source leaves out
The return schedule is the show’s own: 10% for a dollar invested at 20 or younger, falling 0.1 percentage points for each year after 20, to 5.5% at 65. Compounding is monthly, which is what reproduces the published $647, $88 and $7 figures. Every monthly contribution is priced at the rate for the age it goes in, not the rate for your age today, because that is what the schedule says — a deposit made at 45 earns 7.5% whoever makes it. Inflation is JMM’s addition, because the source states it excludes inflation and taxes.
Invested at 0
- Assumed return
- 10.0%
- Multiplier by 65
- 647.5×
- Multiplier after inflation
- 94.8×
Invested at 20
- Assumed return
- 10.0%
- Multiplier by 65
- 88.4×
- Multiplier after inflation
- 23.4×
Invested at 30
- Assumed return
- 9.0%
- Multiplier by 65
- 23.1×
- Multiplier after inflation
- 8.2×
Invested at 40
- Assumed return
- 8.0%
- Multiplier by 65
- 7.3×
- Multiplier after inflation
- 3.5×
Invested at 50
- Assumed return
- 7.0%
- Multiplier by 65
- 2.8×
- Multiplier after inflation
- 1.8×
What the source says, and what the calculator adds
What changes the answer
The published numbers reproduce exactly, and that is the point
Running the guide’s own schedule returns 647.47, 88.35 and 7.34 against the printed 647, 88 and 7. Most creator arithmetic cannot be checked because the assumptions are not published. This one can, and it survives the check.
The deflator does more damage than any input on the page
Move the inflation control and watch the headline collapse. At 3% a year the $647 a dollar invested at birth reaches by 65 is worth about $95 in today’s money — still a striking number, and a completely different one.
Who else has run the numbers on this rule
Everyone below has published a position on this specific rule with a figure attached. Each row names the document, the date and the passage, so you can check the number rather than take ours.
- BJavier EstradaProfessor of finance at IESE Business School, Barcelona, publishing in The Journal of Wealth ManagementAgainst the rule
6.5% annual compound real US equity return, 1900-2014, at 20.0% volatility
Estrada reports the long-run US equity return in the form an investor can actually spend — compound, and after inflation — using the Dimson, Marsh and Staunton series. Over 1900 to 2014 that figure is 6.5% a year at 20% volatility. The multiplier’s 10% is a nominal figure and cannot be compared with it directly, which is exactly the gap: substitute 6.5% real for 10% nominal at age 20 and a dollar reaches about $18 by 65 rather than $88.
stocks and bonds had mean annual compound (real) returns of 6.5% and 0.9%, with annual volatility of 20.0% and 4.6%
The Journal of Wealth ManagementMar 31, 2016Buffett’s Asset Allocation Advice: Take It … with a TwistSpring 2016 issue, page 61, opening sentence of the page, describing the Dimson-Marsh-Staunton data used in the study’s 1900-2014 sample.
The arithmetic is honest to the dollar. The number it produces is not the number people hear.
JMM rebuilt this model from the show’s published schedule and it reproduces every printed figure, which is more than can be said for almost any rule this site has audited. The problem is not the maths, it is the unit. $647 is nominal, pre-tax, and assumes a flat 10% every year for sixty-five consecutive years — a return nobody receives in that shape, on a dollar nobody has at birth. Deflate it at 3% and the same dollar is worth about $95 in today’s money, and $95 is still an argument for investing early. That is JMM’s objection in full: the honest version of this number is persuasive on its own, so printing the nominal one alone trades credibility for a headline it did not need. The show says on the same page that it excludes inflation and taxes. Almost nobody quoting it repeats that sentence.
Not the calculator’s limits. The rule’s.
A flat rate for forty-five years is not what a portfolio does
The model earns exactly its assigned percentage every year. A real investor earns a sequence, and two sequences with the same average produce different balances once contributions or withdrawals are involved. The multiplier is the smooth path through a distribution, not a point on it.
It prices a dollar you already have spare
The multiplier answers what a dollar becomes, never whether you had a dollar to spare. Applied to somebody carrying a card balance at 20%, it argues for investing money that the same show’s own step order says should clear the debt first.
The schedule is asserted, not derived
Nothing on the source page explains why lifetime returns should decline by exactly a tenth of a point per year of age, and no market mechanism makes an older investor’s dollar earn less than a younger one’s in the same fund. It is a modelling convention presented in the grammar of a finding.
What this model does not know
- The rate is fixed for the whole horizon by the age of the dollar. A real portfolio earns a sequence, and the order of that sequence changes the outcome even when the average does not.
- Taxes are excluded, as the source states. The same nominal figure is worth materially different amounts inside a Roth account, a traditional account, and a taxable brokerage.
- Fees are not modelled. A single percentage point of annual cost removes roughly a third of the terminal figure over 45 years.
- The published schedule is defined to age 65. Choosing a different target age extends the same lifetime rate beyond where the source states it, which is JMM’s extrapolation and not the show’s.
Before you use the result
Is the $647 figure real?
It is arithmetically correct under the assumptions the source publishes, and this page reproduces it to the dollar. It is nominal and pre-tax, so it is not $647 of purchasing power in today’s money — at 3% inflation it is closer to $95.
Why does this page compound monthly?
Because that is what matches the guide’s own printed figures. Annual compounding at the same 10% returns 72.9 for a dollar invested at 20, where the guide prints 88; monthly returns 88.35. The convention was derived from the published numbers rather than assumed.
Does the multiplier apply to money already invested?
No. It prices a dollar going in today, at today’s age. A balance already invested has its own history and its own remaining horizon, so use the monthly contribution field for new money and treat the lump sum as this month’s deposit.
The next question this page cannot answer
- Calculator Real after-tax return calculator
Prices the two things the source states it leaves out. The multiplier is nominal and pre-tax; this converts a return into the one the reader actually keeps.
Open → - Dave Ramsey, sourced rule 15% retirement calculator
The same argument at a different publisher: a savings rate illustrated at an 11% nominal return, where this page uses 10% and declines it with age.
Open → - Brian Preston, sourced rule 20/3/8 car rule calculator
The other side of the multiplier. It prices what a dollar becomes; the car rule decides whether the dollar was available to invest at all.
Open →